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Momentum leaders (12-1)
A stock enters the top tenth of the coverage universe by 12-month momentum (excluding the most recent month).
Times fired
1306
2017-02-28 → 2026-08-14
Median 6-mo vs S&P 500
+0.4%
Beat the index
51%
lost 49% of the time
Computed from ~9 years of signal history over today's coverage universe — survivors included, departures not. Percentiles compare against today's universe membership, not historical index membership.
Full distribution, year by year, every event Gold
The spread behind the median, how it held up in each year, and each firing with its outcome — plus 1, 3 and 12-month horizons.
p25 / p75 spread
2022 hit rate
12-month median
Further reading
A base rate is not a prediction; past firings do not decide the next one. Educational analysis of published data — insight, not advice.